MJ Gleeson warns first-time buyer scheme will stall housing sales for months

MJ Gleeson has warned that the government's new Your First Home scheme could stall the housing market for months — because buyers must wait until February to apply for the first loans.

The house builder delivered the warning in a trading update today. It welcomed the scheme, which supports first-time buyers, but flagged a problem with its timing.

The initiative was confirmed in last month's budget. Applications for the first loans won't begin until February. That gap is the crux of Gleeson's concern.

What does the delay change for buyers and builders?

Gleeson expects the announcement itself to freeze the market in the interim. Buyers who might purchase now have a reason to wait roughly five months for a scheme that could improve their position.

Gleeson said: "The announcement of the scheme some five months before its launch is likely to postpone demand in the intervening period and to increase cancellations."

That is a concrete forecast from a listed builder (a company traded on the stock market). Postponed demand means slower reservations. Increased cancellations means deals already agreed falling through as buyers reconsider.

The company added: "We anticipate a weaker first-half, with the pace of recovery in the second half increasingly dependent on the efficient and timely introduction of the scheme."

In plain terms: Gleeson expects a soft opening six months of its financial year. Any rebound hinges on the government delivering the scheme on schedule and without friction.

What does this mean for Gleeson's profits?

The profit picture splits across the year. Gleeson pointed to two moving parts:

• Gleeson Homes: sales will be affected by the likely timings of the Your First Home rollout.
• Gleeson Land: the timing of land disposals (sales of plots to other developers) remains a question of visibility.

The company said: "Given the likely timings of the introduction of Your First Home and its impact on Gleeson Homes' sales, as well as the visibility around the timing of disposals in Gleeson Land, the Board anticipates that profits will be significantly weighted towards the second half of the year with delivery of market consensus for FY2027 reliant on further improvement in buyer confidence."

Two conditions sit inside that statement. First, profits bunch into the second half. Second, hitting market consensus — the average analyst forecast — for the 2027 financial year depends on buyer confidence improving further.

Why the timing gap matters for the wider market

Gleeson builds homes heavily weighted toward first-time buyers, so its trading readout doubles as a signal for that segment of the market. If one of the country's focused first-time-buyer builders expects postponed demand and higher cancellations before February, other developers serving the same buyers face the same arithmetic.

The company's verdict on execution is conditional, not hostile: it welcomed the scheme. Its warning is about the five-month gap between announcement and first applications — and about delivery. If the government introduces Your First Home efficiently and on time in February, Gleeson's second-half recovery has a foundation. If it slips, the FY2027 consensus becomes harder to reach.