Immigrants Supplied All Net Trades Workforce Growth Since 2013

Immigrants accounted for all net growth in the U.S. construction trades workforce between its post-recession low in 2013 and 2024, according to a new research brief from Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. With net international migration falling from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, the industry now faces an aging workforce with a shrinking pipeline behind it.

The numbers are stark. Foreign-born workers made up 35% of construction trades workers in 2024, nearly double their 18% share of the overall labor force. Their share exceeded 50% among drywall installers, plasterers, roofers, painters and flooring installers — occupations the report identifies as physically demanding and lower-paying.

"The trades workforce is still not where it was before the recession," said Riordan Frost, a senior research analyst at JCHS and the report's author. "But the recovery that it has seen has been because of immigrants."

What does the data actually cover?

The trades workforce totaled 6.2 million in 2024, still 700,000 below its pre-recession level. Foreign-born employment rose by 468,000 workers between 2013 and 2024, filling the gap that U.S.-born workers did not.

The report's metro analysis highlights residential building activity, but its workforce findings cover construction broadly, including commercial work. Frost said the American Community Survey data does not distinguish between residential and nonresidential workers.

The brief establishes a workforce baseline rather than measuring shortages or tracking workers' movement between sectors. Its findings point to risks in the occupations and markets most dependent on immigrants.

Where the pressure concentrates

Nearly all growth in foreign-born trades workers since 2013 occurred among those 30 and older. That matters because the youngest foreign-born workers are recent arrivals: 76% of foreign-born trades workers under 30 had come to the U.S. within the previous decade, according to the report. Reduced immigration could weaken that pipeline just as older workers leave physically demanding jobs.

"There's going to be difficulty, I think, filling those lower wage occupations if we have a continued decline in immigration," Frost said.

Geographic exposure varies sharply. Immigrants accounted for about 75% of trades workers in the Miami metro, compared with roughly 6% in St. Louis.

U.S.-born employment has grown, but in higher-paying occupations such as electrical and plumbing work, Frost said.

A different squeeze for commercial contractors

Commercial contractors face a different mix of staffing pressures, said Anirban Basu, chief economist for Associated Builders and Contractors. Data center construction has concentrated hiring in electrical and HVAC trades, while immigration restrictions have chiefly constrained less specialized occupations.

"While weaker residential activity does improve nonresidential worker availability at the margins, it will not materially help with the availability of those supply constrained occupations that are critical to data center work," Basu said.

Basu expects a sustained immigration slowdown to push up labor costs and bids, though high borrowing costs and weaker construction demand could blunt those effects.

Staffing trouble already runs deeper than immigration

Contractors' hiring difficulties extend beyond immigration policy. AGC's September workforce survey found 87% of respondents had hourly craft openings. Among those firms, 88% said the positions were as hard or harder to fill than a year earlier.

The survey also documented enforcement-related churn: 12% of firms reported workers leaving or failing to appear because of actual or rumored immigration enforcement, while 16% reported subcontractors losing workers.

"Shortages of virtually any craft can delay later stages or final completion of a project," said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America.

What does this change for builders? If migration stays near its 2025 lows, the trades that leaned hardest on immigrant labor — drywall, roofing, painting, flooring — will feel the squeeze first, and the cost of finishing projects on time will likely rise with it.